The Pharmacist That Predicted Historical Events with Math
And what he predicted about the 21st century as well.
History repeats itself, they say. But what if that repetition could be calculated by Math? What if History was a cyclical process instead of a group of linear events? What if, given the cyclical nature of History, future events could be predicted? Though the idea has been studied throughout the development of historiography, there was a Spanish pharmacist that developed a theory about the relationship between Math and History that is still debated today. His name was Alexandre Deulofeu, and his theory may reveal a lot about how the world developed to be what it is nowadays.
Who was Alexandre Deulofeu?
Alexandre Deulofeu (1903–1978) was a Catalan pharmacist, philosopher, and mathematician. He grew up and studied pharmaceutical sciences and chemistry in Spain. He went into exile after republicans lost the Spanish Civil War, since he was a fervent Republican politician, and he carried on to develop the Mathematics of History theory. He had several hobbies, such as music and science experiments, and he was close friends with relevant figures, such as Salvador Dalí. Deulofeu died before he could finish the Mathematics of History theory. However, what he found has been enough to begin a debate about whether the rise and decay of civilizations may be calculated entirely through mathematical models and the description of a rigid cycle that all civilizations follow.
The Mathematics of History
Alexandre Deulofeu suggested that civilizations had a life expectancy of 5100 years, divided into three stages of 1700 years each. Deulofeu studied various civilizations throughout history, such as Egyptians, Greeks, Mesopotamians, Sumerians, and Byzantines. Therefore, he was able to develop a graphic model that explained how civilizations rose and decayed. Deulofeu explained that civilizations first emerge with an organized government that is consolidated through some form of democracy. The first stage is one of activity and economic growth: the development of science, knowledge, and culture increases, and civil wealth grows. This first stage of democratic development gets to its maximum around six and a half centuries after the civilization’s establishment and foundation. The second stage occurs once the civilization’s economic and social flourishment has reached its peak. Thereafter, the economy stagnates and its democracy slowly mutates to an increasingly established autocracy. The concentration of power shifts to be in control of one individual, there is more inequality amongst the population, and the government looks for more power expansion. Once the civilization’s hegemony has reached its peak, the civilization moves to a third stage, where the population rises against its autocratic government in search of more freedom and more equality. The government is dismantled, a new form of social organization emerges, and the civilization returns to a similar point from where it was before it began its first stage. Thus, Deulofeu’s theory relies heavily on the fact that history is not linear, but cyclical.
Throughout the development of The Mathematics of History theory, Alexandre Deulofeu was able to predict some events of the 20th century before they were even thinkable, such as the following:
1934: Deulofeu predicted that the United Kingdom’s empire would eventually be reduced to England’s territory. He predicted Ireland’s independence from the UK, followed by India, Egypt, Scotland, and Wales as well. Egypt got its independence from the UK for nearly two years afterward. India followed suit in 1947, and Scotland made a referendum due to independence movements in 2014.
1941: He predicted that Hitler and Nazi Germany would lose World War II, even when Germany was at its peak expansion point.
1951: Deulofeu predicted the coincidence of the fall of the Soviet Union and the arrival of the year 2000. He also said how the fall of the Soviet Union would make the reunification of Germany easier. Forty years later, that was exactly what happened.
Deulofeu’s theory has fascinated many with its accuracy regarding the prediction of future events. However, some others remain skeptical towards his theory, claiming that NGOs and IGOs delay the fall of global governments towards the second stage of autocracy. Also, some others rely on the fact that his theory wasn’t fully developed, due to his early death, to doubt the accuracy of his method. However, history has shown us with past civilizations that he had some reason when saying that every civilization had an autodestruction virus within itself. It only has to be detonated by some turn of events that will go down as a breaking point for that civilization throughout history.
Predictions for the 21st Century
Alexandre Deulofeu also made some predictions for the 21st century. Curious enough, his predictions don’t seem too far away from what we’re living as a globalized society in the year 2020.
China and India: They both will enter into an imperialist stage. They will seek to expand their territories and their economy will grow to be the biggest it has ever been.
The United States and Russia: The two former superpowers will begin to decay. The United States will go through governments that will further their practices from democracy. Russia will see divisions and fragmentations within its territory due to its population being tired of living in antidemocratic, unfair conditions. Both civilizations are not forecasted to last beyond 2069.
France and Russia: Both countries will begin their fragmentation process. Even though the French civilization is projected to last longer, Deulofeu specifically compared the Spanish civilization to the former Soviet Union. Deulofeu predicted that the Spanish kingdom would break into different entities that will finally be able to achieve independence. He predicted the Spanish nation would not last longer than in 2029.
Germany and Japan: Both countries are projected to have long, lasting empires. Germany is projected to be the economic center of Europe for two more centuries and Deulofeu predicted that Japan would be the only nation that could rival China as the main economic power in the Asian continent.
South America: The region, centered in Argentina, will enter Stage 1 of the Deulofeulic cycle. Deulofeu believed the region will develop to be an economic powerhouse for the next centuries to come.
Of course, Alexandre Deulofeu only developed a theory: it doesn’t mean that he solved how the 21st century will unwind, or how history should be objectively studied from now on. However, the theory also brings awareness over how civilizations fall and how they can avoid to destroy themselves through autocratic behavior. Being a pharmacist, Deulofeu might have developed the theory to eradicate the illnesses of civilizations. Whatever his purposes were, one thing is for sure: Math might control many more things about our species and the world than we might be aware of.
Bibliography and other references
cuellilargo. “La matemática de la HISTORIA”. September 30th, 2019. Video. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dyLNaurtTZ8.
Matemática de la Historia. “The Mathematics of History”. In Matemática de la Historia, accessed on June 4th, 2020. http://www.matematicadelahistoria.cat/llengua/the-mathematics-of-history#:~:text=The%20Mathematics%20of%20History,medium%20length%20of%20550%20years.
PlayGround Magazine. “La matemática de la historia: ¿se puede calcular el futuro?”. In PlayGround Magazine, November 7th, 2017. Video. Original video eliminated. Current post found in 24siete.info, November 5th, 2017: https://www.facebook.com/watch/?v=1478565262181301&external_log_id=a47faf5849a78e62a16eba05da54bdf8&q=la%20matem%C3%A1tica%20de%20la%20historia.